's Mayer Multiple recently hit 0.6, trading 40% below its 200-day moving average. This level mirrors the deep discounts seen in late 2022. Investors now question if this indicates a bottom for BTC.
The metric, dividing current price by the 200-day average, highlights undervaluation. With BTC around $68,000, the average sits at $102,794 as of early February 2026.
This drop reflects broader market pressures in centralized finance sectors.
Understanding the Mayer Multiple
Created by Trace Mayer, this tool gauges bitcoin's value relative to long-term trends. Values below 0.8 often signal buying opportunities in crypto markets.
Historically, readings near 0.6 have preceded major rallies. For instance, in December 2018, it hit 0.5 before a 540% surge.
Similar patterns emerged in 2020 and 2022 bear phases.
The current 0.6 level has been higher 90% of bitcoin's history, per data from various analytics platforms.
Current Levels Echo 2022 Bear market
As of February 7, 2026, the Mayer Multiple stood at 0.67, with BTC at $68,603. This aligns with 2022 lows during FTX fallout.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Ruga Research, bitcoin deviates 40% below its long-term trend. Such extremes typically mark reversal points.
data shows 46% of supply underwater, adding to capitulation signals in cefi trading.
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments notes this range offers
one of the most attractive buying points
historically.
Analyst Perspectives on BTC price Bottom
Experts see bullish signals despite downside risks. Edwards highlights that while prices may dip further, history favors recoveries from these levels.
JPMorgan analysts peg $94,000 as a potential bottom, but current prices undercut that amid $1 trillion market wipeouts.
Zacks' John Blank warns of drops to $40,000, citing megaphone patterns in prior cycles.
Yet, Galaxy Research suggests the 200-week average near $58,000 could provide strong support.
In cefi markets, reduced long-term holder selling indicates growing confidence at these prices.
Implications for Centralized Finance and Broader market
CeFi platforms face liquidity strains as bitcoin's valuation compresses. ETF cost bases around $84,000 add pressure, with prices 10% below at times.
market sentiment remains cautious, with Google searches spiking during the drop from $81,500.
Analysts like those at BeInCrypto note profitable supply at 50%, a bottom signal absent since 2022.
This undervaluation in crypto markets could attract institutional inflows, stabilizing cefi operations.
Predictions vary: Changelly sees averages over $113,000 by March 2026, but short-term risks persist.
Potential Pathways for BTC Recovery
If bitcoin reclaims $71,500, it may target $80,000 mid-term. Failure could test $55,500, per Investing.com analysis.
Historical data from AInvest shows 0.74 readings align with
buy the dip
zones, higher 90.88% of the time.
CeFi traders should monitor the 200-day average for trend shifts.
Actionable steps include assessing portfolio exposure amid these market dynamics.
The Mayer Multiple's return to 2022 levels underscores bitcoin's cyclical nature. This metric provides key insights for navigating cefi volatility and spotting potential bottoms.
