bitcoin rallied up to 4% on February 13, 2026, reaching $69,190 following cooler-than-expected US CPI data. This move triggered significant short liquidations, highlighting retail influence in the . Analysts remain cautious about sustained gains.
market Context
The cryptocurrency cap climbed 4.3% to $2.36 trillion amid recent volatility. bitcoin's bounced from $65,000 lows, driven by easing inflation pressures.
US CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% forecast. Core inflation held at 2.5%, supporting rate-cut expectations.
This data weakened the dollar, boosting risk assets like bitcoin. However, Fed rate-cut odds for a 0.25% move stay low at under 10%.
bearish Indicators Persist
Despite the rebound, technical charts show caution. The ADX at 51.3 signals strong downward trend conviction.
RSI at 35 remains in bearish territory, far from neutral. The 50-day EMA sits below the 200-day EMA, confirming a bearish structure.
bitcoin has fallen 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,200. Breaking below the 2021 high of $69,420 confirms a bear phase.
Retail Traders' Role
Retail traders pressured short positions, leading to $100 million in liquidations. Small wallets under $10K added $613 million in cumulative volume delta since February.
This retail-led buying occurred during dips on centralized finance platforms. Short squeezes focused on exchanges like Bybit and Gate.
On-chain data reveals easing sell pressure and tentative buyer engagement. Whale accumulation paused, but distribution has not resumed fully.
Institutional and Whale Activity
Institutions show mixed signals in CeFi markets. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $410 million outflows in one day, accelerating amid declines.
Yet, whales accumulated over 70,000 BTC since the month started. Companies like MicroStrategy continue building positions.
According to Glassnode, patterns resemble early 2022 before the next bull cycle. However, Coinbase premium turned negative, indicating US institutional selling.
Analyst Insights
Standard Chartered analysts slashed their 2026 bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000. They warn of a potential drop to $50,000 before recovery.
"The coin could crash to $50K first," noted the bank's report, citing ongoing market rotation to AI narratives.
market observers on platforms like TradingView suggest bottoms form amid extreme fear. The Fear and Greed Index hit 8, signaling potential accumulation.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe anticipates a higher low, but notes fragile momentum. Daan Crypto Trades eyes a falling wedge breakout.
On-Chain and Future Outlook
Daily transaction counts and active addresses declined, showing reduced retail participation overall. Short-term holder profitability hit lows not seen since November 2022.
For momentum to sustain, whales must resume accumulation and loss-selling needs to halt. Current range is between $68,000 and $72,000.
A break above $72,000 could target $74,500. Failure to hold $68,800 risks a drop to $65,000 or $60,000 support.
Implications for Traders
Traders should monitor upcoming CFTC data and rigs reports for swings. In CeFi, leverage ratios fell, with longs crowded post-squeeze.
Negative funding rates indicate bearish bias short-term. Yet, historical data shows rebounds follow such capitulation events.
This rebound underscores retail traders' impact on short positioning in volatile markets. It may signal a stabilization phase, offering educational insights for navigating CeFi trends.
