bitcoin's has dropped 28% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, confirming a death cross on November 17. This event marks the fourth such pattern in recent cycles, often signaling potential bottoms or deeper declines. Investors now watch for recovery signs amid extreme fear sentiment.
Understanding the Death Cross
A death cross happens when bitcoin's 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, indicating weakening momentum. According to CoinDesk, this occurred as the 50-day fell to $110,669 against the 200-day at $110,459.
This signal has historically led to varied results in the crypto market. In 2022, it triggered a 70% meltdown, but in 2023 and 2024, it marked local bottoms followed by rallies.
Recent bitcoin Trends
As of November 21, 2025, bitcoin trades around $88,000, erasing all yearly gains after a choppy period. Yahoo Finance reports a 28% decline from highs, fueled by rate-cut doubts and $1.2 trillion in crypto drawdowns.
volatility remains high, with monthly spot volumes peaking at $1.1 billion in March 2025. CNBC notes bitcoin threatens to break below $80,000, extending recent slides amid broader roils.
Implications for the BTC market
The death cross suggests bitcoin may enter bear territory, with odds of ending 2025 below $90,000 rising to 50%, per Reuters. Analysts warn of no V-shaped recovery, advising patience for bottoms.
However, some view it as a reset flushing excess leverage. Finance Magnates highlights record ETF outflows contributing to the dip, yet potential rebounds loom if sentiment shifts.
Impact on Centralized Finance (CeFi)
In CeFi, bear markets amplify risks, as seen in past cycles with lending platforms facing liquidations. Galaxy Research shows CeFi borrows at $24.4 billion in Q3 2025, down 34% from 2022 highs but up from bear troughs.
CeFi platforms like exchanges may see reduced volumes during bitcoin downturns. Chainalysis notes North American adoption rebounded post-2022 collapses, but current weakness could slow institutional inflows.
Bear phases often lead to fund shifts from stocks to crypto, per ScienceDirect studies, though high bitcoin returns in bulls reverse this. CeFi resilience depends on regulatory clarity amid volatility.
Effects on the market
NFTs suffer in bitcoin bear markets, with sales volumes dropping sharply as investor risk appetite wanes. Forbes reports macro factors fueling declines, linking hype to crypto prices.
Studies from Springer show positive correlations between bitcoin and values, meaning downturns hit floors hard. TechInsight360 cites falling ETH prices and gas fees as key negatives in bear phases.
During 2022's crypto winter, markets saw 70-90% floor price drops, per Learn Crypto. Current trends suggest similar pressures, though quality projects may recover faster.
Expert Opinions and Analysis
Analysts offer diverse views on bitcoin's path. One popular analyst states,
Assuming bitcoin topped at $126,200 in October, the next bottom could arrive in October 2026, offering ideal buying opportunities,
as reported by Yahoo Finance.
Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin could soar over 455% in three years, emphasizing long-term growth despite short-term bears. Tom Lee of Fundstrat forecasts $250,000 by end-2025, citing ETF inflows and institutional momentum.
From on-chain perspectives, Galaxy notes DeFi overtaking CeFi in lending dominance at 59.83% in Q2 2025. These insights underscore bitcoin's cycle patterns, advising strategic accumulation.
Navigating the Bear market
Traders should monitor support levels like $80,000 for potential bounces. Active voice strategies include diversifying into stable CeFi options or undervalued NFTs during dips.
Education on technicals like death crosses aids decision-making in volatile markets. Prioritize verifiable data to avoid hype, focusing on actionable trends.
This death cross highlights interconnected risks across crypto sectors, urging caution in CeFi lending and investments. Understanding these dynamics equips users to capitalize on eventual recoveries in the broader market.
