bitcoin's hit a weekly high above $126K, marking a significant milestone in the ongoing cycle. This surge reflects strong institutional interest in centralized finance platforms handling bitcoin trades. However, a sudden drop to $112K raised questions about sustainability.
1. price Volatility and Recent Flash Crash
bitcoin experienced intense swings, climbing to $126K before plummeting due to external factors like tariff announcements. Recovery efforts pushed it back above $112K, showing resilience in the .
The crash liquidated over $19 billion in positions, yet spot buying on centralized exchanges stabilized levels.
According to ARK Invest, ended Q3 at $114,065, surpassing the short-term holder cost basis of $111,933, a bullish historical signal.
2. Analyst Predictions on $120K and Beyond
Experts forecast could reach $140K by month's end, driven by bullish technical indicators. Others see potential for $160K if key crossovers hold.
One analysis points to a parabolic move or cycle end within 100 days, based on historical patterns.
Crypto analyst Gigi Sulivan noted the bull market might conclude around October 20, aligning with cyclical trends.
Brave New Coin reports suggest holding the golden cross could propel prices to $160K by late October.
3. Signs of Bull market Continuation or Potential End
Historical cycles indicate the bull run may wrap up soon, with past tops occurring 367 to 549 days post-halving. This cycle hits 537 days, sparking debates.
However, Arthur Hayes argues the four-year cycle is obsolete due to accommodative monetary policies, supporting ongoing gains.
market data shows 50% odds of $120K by year-end via options, with 80% chance between $86K and $158K.
Bernstein analysts predict the run could extend to 2027, defying traditional timelines.
4. Institutional Inflows and CeFi Dynamics
Centralized finance saw massive ETF inflows, with $1.19 billion in one day and $3.2 billion weekly. BlackRock's IBIT nears $100 billion in assets.
Whales accumulate at 7.4 times the mining rate, bolstering demand in cefi ecosystems.
According to CoinDesk, these flows invalidate crash fears, as liquidity remains supportive.
Options data reflects institutional conviction, pricing in triple-digit prices as base case.
5. Macro Factors Influencing the market
Rising global liquidity and Fed rate cut odds to 3.5% by 2026 favor bitcoin as a hedge. Gold's 16% surge mirrors this debasement trade.
DXY trends suggest if it breaks down, bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030s; otherwise, the rally ends.
CryptoDnes analysis indicates a recovery post-crash, with altcoins showing strength despite liquidity dispersion.
PlanB's model tracks bitcoin above $100K for the fifth month, hinting at further upside.
These factors highlight bitcoin's role in broader strategies within centralized finance. Staying informed aids in making educated decisions amid uncertainty.
