Can Iran Block the Strait of Hormuz? Risks & Implications
Date Published
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil is transported daily, making it vital for global energy markets.
Understanding the Strait of Hormuz
Located between Oman, the UAE, and Iran, this narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and beyond. Its width narrows to just 3 km in each direction, heightening vulnerability to disruptions.
Iran's Threat to Close the Strait
Iran has long threatened to block this maritime route during times of conflict, although it has never taken such action. According to Iran’s Press TV, the decision ultimately rests with the Supreme National Security Council, pending parliamentary approval.
Iran’s recent threats come amid heightened tensions following Israel's surprise attacks on Iran and US military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities crossed a “very big red line,” fueling fears of escalation.
Potential Impact of Closure
If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could surge dramatically, disrupting supply chains worldwide. The oil trade relies heavily on this passage, with roughly 20 million barrels passing through daily. Such a blockade would lead to energy price spikes and economic ripple effects across markets.
Strategic Vulnerability and International Response
The narrow shipping lane makes the strait vulnerable to attack or closure, especially during conflicts involving regional powers. Although no direct disruption has occurred yet, freight rates have surged by 55 percent month-over-month due to escalating tensions. Experts warn that even a partial closure could trigger economic instability globally.
Can Iran Afford to Close It?
While Tehran has previously threatened closure, implementing such a move involves complex logistical and diplomatic challenges. The decision requires approval from Iran’s Security Council and parliament, which has yet to ratify any formal measure. Iran’s strategic calculus involves weighing economic consequences against regional dominance goals.
Relevance for Global Markets and Security
As tensions rise between Iran, Israel, and the US, the possibility of shutting down the Strait remains a significant risk factor influencing international energy security. The situation underscores how regional conflicts can have far-reaching impacts on global stability and economic health. Understanding Iran's intentions and capacity is crucial for predicting future developments in Middle East geopolitics.